Scottish Parliament Visualisation

I’ve spent a little time in the last 24 hours (with much help from John Williamson) scraping MSP division (vote) data from the Scottish Parliament website. Divisions are held when the MPs do not agree on a particular motion being put before them. Each MP votes for or against the motion, and the majority wins. The division data is held within the official parliamentary records (essentially a dump of everything said during the day). Here’s an example containing several divisions:

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28862.aspx?r=8256&mode=html

If you know any html, take a look at the source, and marvel at how poorly structured it is (how about defining a div or span class for a division?? Or, as a start, how about closing your divs??). Also note the opaque numbering system (change the number after ‘r=’ in the link to get other records, seemingly randomly ordered).

Ranting aside, I think we finally managed to extract all division data for the current parliament (since 5th May 2011). Assuming I haven’t messed it all up (I will check…), since 5th May 2011 133 different MPs have voted in 580 divisions casting a total of 66,310 votes. I’m happy to share the data or the Python used to scrape it if anyone else wants it.

The first thing I’ve done with the data is visualise the MPs in two dimensions (apologies for the rubbish plot, clicking on it makes it slightly better, labelling the MPs and votes would probably be useful):

2Dvis

In this 2D world, each MP is a point (coloured according to standard party convention, grey are independents), and each vote is a line that splits the MPs who voted ‘for’ the motion from those who voted ‘against’. Given the large number of MPs and votes, it’s incredibly unlikely that it will be possible to position all of the MPs and votes such that all MPs are on the correct side of all votes. However, we can use some computational magic to position them in a manner that gets as many right as possible (in this case, 97.8% of the MP-vote pairs are correct). Once they have been placed, the position of the MPs tells us something about how they vote. For example, they will be near other MPs who have similar voting patterns, and far away from those that have very different ones.

I haven’t had the chance to look at this in much detail yet but the one thing that stands out is the homogeneity of the main parties (their members are very bunched together). In the Westminster parliament, a substantial minority of MPs regularly rebel against their parties resulting in much broader clouds of points (e.g. here is a plot of Westminster MPs since 2010: 2010plain and in the 2005 parliament: 2005plain). The most rebellious MP in the Scottish Parliament is Christine Grahame (SNP) with 6 rebellions (defined as not voting with the party majority) out of 544 votes (~1%). Compare that with Labour MP Dennis Skinner who, up to the end of the 2005 Westminster Parliament had rebelled a total of 273 times (source). In fact, there are so few that I can give you a list of all those MPs who have rebelled more than once:

  • Grahame, Christine (SNP, Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale) 6 (544)
  • Murray, Elaine (Lab, Dumfriesshire) 5 (529)
  • Gibson, Kenneth (SNP, Cunninghame North) 4 (569)
  • Malik, Hanzala (Lab, Glasgow) 4 (521)
  • Boyack, Sarah (Lab, Lothian) 3 (523)
  • Chisholm, Malcolm (Lab, Edinburgh Northern and Leith) 3 (569)
  • Cunningham, Roseanna (SNP, Perthshire South and Kinross-shire) 3 (536)
  • Henry, Hugh (Lab, Renfrewshire South) 3 (486)
  • Smith, Drew (Lab, Glasgow) 3 (517)
  • Wilson, John (SNP, Central Scotland) 3 (558)
  • McGrigor, Jamie (Con, Highlands and Islands) 3 (535)
  • Dugdale, Kezia (Lab, Lothian) 2 (545)
  • Eadie, Jim (SNP, Edinburgh Southern) 2 (564)
  • Ferguson, Patricia (Lab, Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn) 2 (492)
  • McLeod, Fiona (SNP, Strathkelvin and Bearsden) 2 (530)
  • Park, John (Lab, Mid Scotland and Fife) 2 (287)
  • Urquhart, Jean (SNP, Highlands and Islands) 2 (274)
  • Carlaw, Jackson (Con, West Scotland) 2 (484)
  • Scanlon, Mary (Con, Highlands and Islands) 2 (553)
  • Fraser, Murdo (Con, Mid Scotland and Fife) 2 (511)
  • Milne, Nanette (Con, North East Scotland) 2 (536)

I’ll leave it with you to decide whether that’s a good or bad thing.

(Note 1: my definition of rebellion is not great – in Westminster, a vote is only rebellious if it is whipped (i.e. the party declare that all MPs have to vote a certain way) and not all votes are. Some of those above may have been on un-whipped votes.)

Two MPs appear on the plot above twice – John Finnie and Jean Urquhart. They both resigned from the SNP in late October 2012 and so appear once for their votes as members of the SNP and once as Independent MPs. In fact, their independent incarnations can be seen as the two grey circles SouthWest of the main chunk of SNP MSPs (yellow).

A final observation is how much voting is done. In the Westminster parliament attendance at votes is highly variable. In Holyrood it seems much more consistent. The median number of votes case by MPs is 530 (out of 580; 91%) and the 25th and 75th percentiles are 492 (85%) and 558 votes (96%) respectively.

Note 2: An added complication with the Scottish Parliament is that MPs can actively abstain from a vote. The model deals with this by defining an exclusion zone around the line, within which only abstainers can be placed. Below are some examples of individual votes with the MPs now coloured according to how they voted (red = against, green = abstain, blue = for, grey = didn’t vote). The solid line is the vote line, the dashed ones showing the exclusion zone. In these examples (as with most), the visualisation has done a decent job of separating the fors and againsts (reds and blues), with predominantly only the abstains and non-voters appearing in the exclusion zone.

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